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Post by scorpiodog on May 3, 2018 16:01:55 GMT
I am prompted by several recent threads to attempt to generate discussion in this area.
The proposition is this:
Guitar music was ubiquitous in the past. But musical tastes and fashions are such that this may no longer be the case. Also, many manufacturers have increased production or come into the market over the last 40 years or so and supply has therefore increased enormously. Add to this that the heyday of guitar music was many years ago, and the consumers of this type of music are ageing. Thus demand has, or is about to, fall as the enthusiasts for and aficionados of guitar music die.
Furthermore, guitars are reasonably durable. So it may be that sales of new guitars may fall because of oversaturation of the market in general.
The ukulele (and to a lesser degree the banjo) was ubiquitous in the 1920's and 1930's as a popular instrument, but went out of fashion until, in the 1960's and 1970's it became rather a joke. It has experienced something of a revival in recent years.
So, is there a future for guitar manufacturers and mainstream guitar music?
Anybody got any opinions on this?
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Post by oustudent on May 3, 2018 16:52:04 GMT
History tells us that guitars were used in America as early as 1645, when colonized by the French, Spanish and Dutch and others. I expect we will see peaks and troughs but I can't see a point in time when all manufacturing will cease.
However, I believe we are seeing a period of oversaturation.
I would hate to be in charge at Martin, they are continually reinventing the product to stay in front. I can see their sales dropping over the next five years and they are probably producing the best guitar they have even made.
J
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Post by Onechordtrick on May 3, 2018 17:20:42 GMT
I think it’s cyclical in my lifetime we’ve had guitar based rock, punk, then as new way merged the keyboard became king. The. We had britpop and guitars again. Now it’s more electronic. How these cycles reflect the number of guitars sold I have no idea.
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Wild Violet
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Post by Wild Violet on May 3, 2018 18:03:21 GMT
Ed Sheeran and Taylor Swift have introduced acoustic guitars to an entire generation - and many more young people are playing (in my area at least) than there were 10 years ago. If our local music scene is anything to go by, they seem to be sticking with it and are becoming very accomplished players.
In my opinion there has been an influx of cheap but decent Pac-rim guitars over the last 15 years which may well be hurting the more expensive companies but as far as the actual music, there seems to be a resurgence of guitar based folk, trad, and bluegrass music among the under-30s.
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Post by nkforster on May 3, 2018 22:07:36 GMT
What isn't sustainable is the number of guitar makers. That will reduce.
Nigel
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Post by andyhowell on May 4, 2018 6:12:31 GMT
The answer is yes if you look at the popularity of open mics and acoustic clubs.
However, all the kids play baby guitars and I suspect the high end obsession is something of a problem as a baby boomers die out.
So, no - maybe!
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Post by andyhowell on May 4, 2018 6:15:32 GMT
I’ve recommended this before but ‘Guitar Makers: The Endurance of Artisanal Values in North America’ by Kathryn Marie Dudley deals directly with your question.
A great read this.
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Post by delb0y on May 4, 2018 6:17:53 GMT
I think there's a good future for guitars. Maybe there aren't as many youngsters taking up the guitar as there used to be... or maybe there are? I have no idea. I think there's probably more music being made, and much of it featuring guitars, than ever before. What I do think, though, is that we don't need any more actual guitars. There are enough of them out there now, that anyone who wants one, will be able to find a very decent used one for sale at a far better price than they'd pay for a new one. And as times get ever harder I think more and more people will go in that direction, especially those that have stuck with it and know what they want.
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walkingdecay
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Post by walkingdecay on May 4, 2018 9:19:13 GMT
We have reached an age where artistic cultures of all forms are fragmented, with sub-niches nesting within niches and a lack of full-on movements like impressionism, the jazz age or '60s pop culture. All have their devotees and may benefit from periodic fads, but none really stand out. It's tempting to blame the internet, where trends change as often as my son changes his socks (why does he get through so many socks?) but the truth is that artists now struggle to find anything new. The guitar based musical genres that dominated the last half of the 20th century are a case in point. Like jazz before them they have become worked-out, set to recreate the same old tropes with small variations forevermore.
Within that context I think the guitar based music will survive but will be, again like jazz, the preserve of devotees. That said, there are far more specimens of the skin disease on a ball of dirt that we call humanity around nowadays, surely enough to drive a healthy market.
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minorkey
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Post by minorkey on May 4, 2018 9:27:24 GMT
I think guitars will be around as long as people are.
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Post by jubbo on May 4, 2018 12:24:28 GMT
I love this question. There will always be peaks and troughs. The acoustic guitar was in a deep trough and Eric Clapton and his MTV unplugged gig changed all of that. Chris Martin of Martin guitars (not Cold Play) often speaks about the importance of this MTV series that made acoustic music big again and caused a boom in the industry. The industry was heading into another trough and along comes Ed Sheeran and Taylor Swift (as mentioned above). Thanks to Ed, smaller guitars are now more popular than ever.
I also don't buy the argument that guitars last a long time so once people have one they won't buy another. The majority of people that play will buy more than one guitar.
I was recently at one of the Martin Q&A's. Chris Martin says it is currently a flatter period now for acoustic guitars, they are towards the end of the Sheeran boom. He spoke frankly about the cyclical nature of the business. He says that the biggest challenge for his industry is wood. The issues with endangered species, legislation etc etc.
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Post by cottonopolis on May 4, 2018 13:46:37 GMT
I think guitars will be around as long as people are. And with Trump still breathing, that could change anytime
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Post by vikingblues on May 4, 2018 18:51:25 GMT
Peaks and troughs - hang around long enough with most things and they come back into fashion.
Mark
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Post by Andy P on May 4, 2018 20:22:26 GMT
Peaks and troughs - hang around long enough with most things and they come back into fashion. Mark Maybe, but those old loon-pants have been lying in a drawer for a hell of a long time.....
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Wild Violet
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Post by Wild Violet on May 5, 2018 8:19:06 GMT
I was thinking about all the young people going to uni now to get a degree in folk/trad music. It may have started off in Newcastle (?) but they are very popular and now many universities offer similar degrees. The courses are 2-4 years and combine history with improving your instrument, learning trad songs, performance skills, arrangement, etc. There seem to be kids who graduate from these courses and go straight on to win Young Folk Awards.
I'm not sure how I feel about the courses - on one hand I'd love to do one just for fun - but the folk and trad was traditionally played in local communities or homes and passed down to the younger generation through exposure. I'm also a bit jealous that these people are able to spend 3-4 years of their lives concentrating completely improving their knowledge, playing, and performance. But getting a degree in folk music... what's next? A degree in busking? (Maybe I could have a new career as a uni lecturer!) Anyway the proliferation of these courses proves that younger people are still interested in acoustic music, with guitar, banjo, fiddle, and mandolin being the top instruments. They will be around long after I'm gone to pass the music to future generations.
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